Augur Digest #97 (Flash)

Author

Augur Infinity
October 07, 2025

  1. Global Economics
    1. United States
    2. Canada
    3. Europe
    4. Asia-Pacific
    5. China
    6. Emerging Markets ex China
  2. Global Markets
    1. Equities
    2. FX
    3. Commodities

Global Economics

United States

  • Consumer spending, based on credit card data, is running about 2% higher than the same period last year.
  • The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index signaled softening demand. Prices fell 0.2% M/M in September, though the year-over-year increase edged up to 2.0% from 1.7%.

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Canada

  • Canada's trade deficit widened more than expected in August, driven by a drop in exports while imports saw a slight increase. The deficit came in at C$6.32 billion, compared to a consensus estimate of C$5.55 billion.

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Europe

  • German factory orders unexpectedly declined in August, falling 0.8% M/M against expectations for a 1.4% rise, suggesting persistent weakness in the industrial sector.
  • France's trade deficit narrowed slightly in August as imports fell more than exports. The deficit was €5.5 billion, a modest improvement from the previous month's €5.7 billion and better than the consensus of €5.2 billion.
  • France posted a current account surplus in August, reversing a deficit from the prior month (act: €1.5B, prev: -€1.9B).
  • France's official reserve assets increased to a new all-time high in September (act: €330.27B, prev: €304.80B).
  • The final estimate for Dutch inflation in September confirmed an acceleration to 3.3% Y/Y from 2.8% in August, driven by energy prices. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.1%.

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  • Norwegian manufacturing production picked up in August, rising by a solid 0.7% M/M after a 0.4% increase in July.
  • Switzerland's foreign currency reserves rose in September (act: CHF 726.74B, prev: CHF 715.16B).

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Asia-Pacific

  • Japan's preliminary leading economic index rose in August, while the coincident index fell (Leading act: 107.4, est: 107.1; Coincident act: 113.4, prev: 114.1).

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  • Japan's official reserve assets increased in September (act: $1.341T, prev: $1.324T).

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  • Japanese household spending significantly beat expectations in August. Spending rose 2.3% Y/Y, well above the 1.2% consensus, while the M/M increase was a solid 0.6%. The data points to resilient consumer demand despite ongoing economic uncertainty.

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  • Australian consumer sentiment fell for the second straight month in October, declining by 3.5% to an index level of 92.1, now 9% below its long-run average. The drop was driven by renewed inflation and interest rate uncertainty, which erased the boost from earlier RBA rate cuts. Perceptions of future family finances plunged 9.9%, though housing sentiment and expectations for rate hikes rose after the recent strong inflation report.
  • Australian job advertisements fell sharply in September, dropping 3.3% M/M. The decline, which follows a smaller 0.3% dip in August, suggests a cooling labor market.
  • New Zealand business conditions remained weak in the third quarter, supporting a dovish outlook for the RBNZ. Capacity utilization eased slightly to 89.1% from 89.4%.
  • Taiwan's foreign exchange reserves reached an all-time high in September (act: $602.94B, prev: $597.43B).

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China

  • China's foreign exchange reserves edged higher in September, rising to $3.339 trillion from $3.322 trillion in the previous month.

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Emerging Markets ex China

  • Philippine headline inflation rose to 1.7% Y/Y in September but missed consensus expectations of 2.0%, driven by higher transport costs. Critically for the central bank, core CPI slowed to 2.6% Y/Y from 2.7%. The headline print came in at the low end of the central bank's forecast range, supporting the case for further rate cuts through the first quarter of 2026.

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  • Philippine industrial production rebounded in August, rising 2.0% Y/Y after contracting 1.9% in July. However, the 3-month rate of change in the volume index remains deeply negative.
  • The Philippines saw its official reserve assets increase in September (act: $108.8B, prev: $107.1B).
  • Czech industrial production unexpectedly contracted in August, falling 1.3% Y/Y versus expectations for a 0.6% gain.
  • The Czech Republic's trade surplus expanded significantly in August, beating consensus expectations (act: CZK 5.6B, est: CZK 3.8B).
  • Czech construction output surged in August, growing 17.1% Y/Y, the fastest pace since January 2018.
  • Hungarian industrial output declined sharply in August, falling 7.3% Y/Y compared to a 1.0% drop in the prior month.
  • Russian vehicle sales continued to fall in September, declining 20% Y/Y after an 19% drop in August.
  • Mexico's auto production contracted further in September, with the year-over-year decline worsening to 6.1% from 0.8% in August.
  • South Africa's official reserve assets fell in September (act: $69.74B, prev: $70.42B).
  • Indonesia's official reserve assets declined in September (act: $148.7B, prev: $150.7B).
  • Poland's foreign exchange reserves reached an all-time high in September (act: $262.5B, prev: $260.9B).
  • Russia's official reserve assets reached a new all-time high in September (act: $713.3B, prev: $689.4B).

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Global Markets

Equities

  • S&P 500 rallied for the eighth consecutive session to the 33rd all-time high of 2025.
  • Russell 2000 Index also gained for eight days straight, the longest winning streak since February 2019.
  • The S&P/TSX Composite reached its 52nd all-time high of the year.
  • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 is trading at the highest level since February 2022.
  • The Euronext Lisbon PSI 20 Index has reached its best level since April 2010.
  • Below we have the year-to-date returns of global equity markets (in USD). Greece equities toped the leaderboard, returning nearly 83%, while Argentina equities lagged far behind at -41%.

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FX

  • The yen is trading at the weakest level against USD since March 2025.
  • The yuan depreciated by 0.3% today, 2.2σ move.

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Commodities

  • The YTD performance of gold is the best since 1979.
  • Speculative net positions in gold are getting longer.
  • Cocoa fell to the lowest level since February 2024.
  • Aluminum futures, on a roll-adjusted basis, hit the best level since May 2024.

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Disclaimer

Augur Digest is an automatically generated newsletter edited by humans. It may contain inaccuracies and is not investment advice. Augur Labs LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your reliance on the information contained in the newsletter.

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